Three current stock market risk

 The Shanghai Composite Index from June 2005 to 998 to come to more than 4,000 points, while 15 fell, but still 3899 points. Broader market surging, many stock-fold. Remember that in 3000 about the risk warning voices Today it seems to disappear, and since the Chinese New Year from the famous that the broader market in early 2007, will exceed more than 5300 points, but also with China's economy is concerned, 4000 is normal, can not think there is any bubble. but up to speed so fast is beyond our imagination, it seems now that the risk necessary.
one of the risks: from 1000 to 4000 only one year's time, growing too fast.
risk II: The stock market frenzy that has attracted most of the stock market without any understanding of new investors into the market blindly, so that from a financial investment into a speculation, and even fashion. be sure to say that those who now think of the people into the stock market, will result in a major Chinese stock market risk.
risk Third: In the majority of blue chips and heavyweight occasion of stagflation, a large number of shares without any fundamental support of the underperformance, with a slight profit shares have to cross-shareholdings with a shred of the concept of equity brokerage concepts repeated speculation, as Rounds of the small paved the way for periodic adjustments.
current A-share market is probably the biggest bubble in the valuation of such plates from some of the fundamentals of neither substance nor support the stock, worth preparedness. steady investors or to prevent or circumvent the structural foam now, patiently waiting for the broader market higher after adjustment stage investment opportunities. lost and lonely common problem for investors is that we all play the last one.
the current development of Chinese capital market is not mature, China's stock market value of GDP, more than 70%, although lower than the U.S., UK and other markets, but in 2001 only 15% of the data also. This means that if 30% are A shares of the callback occurs, the overall macro effect is limited, however, take great pains to shift the small shareholders. Therefore, we believe in the stock index to 5,000 points from 4,000 points advance, when the probability of macro-control policies will be introduced increased significantly. If the control measures introduced too slowly, the stock market this year, larger and more heavy losses will increase the risk of adjustment.
control measures may be taken by the Government
recent government regulation and control measures may be taken include: Some officials may come out publicly reaffirmed the risk of equity investments, capital gains tax to encourage the sale of state shares in large cap companies, the introduction of the of the very few to prompt investors to the stock market correction could occur. but is it not a substantive intervention, is to do more to supervision. if not accompanied by a number of policies, may be in the market today no effect.
capital gains tax on a global scale of this approach is widely disputed, many Chinese opposed to institutional investors. But tax policy is not taken at the appropriate time to use the proper tools, because the tax framework for the development of very complex and requires a lot of time to implement, and will exist for a long.
sale of state shares in the policy will not interfere too much on the market, and meet the needs of the current corporate fund.
central bank possible introduction of a . because the interest rates will not only be adjusting to a market and a 54 basis points rate hike is unprecedented. the possibility of raising interest rates 27 basis points'd be larger, but also to the strong macro-economic control. We expect the central bank will raise interest rates two times, each time by 27 basis points. But these two interest rates, if not combined with other measures, basically will not change market sentiment.
> Looking at the Chinese stock market, It is well known to people. The current features of the stock market has entered the policy of the city , the management control of the market value of the center. and it? The answer is no! China's stock market investor losses of more than seen. management at a high level if the policy does not take a strong inhibition of stock, the stock market continued to go tend to be quite crazy, just like the stock market madness of 1996, requires management to the same. The current stock market basically went to a crazy rise in stages.
is difficult to rally the stock market one of the reasons is the policy of funds in the stock market rise in the basic short course in the hands of chips, can now only control the stock market down, can not control the stock market has risen, of course, risen to a certain height fall further down to is quite another thing. policy of the city did not issue new shares of the market, market regulation, so the stock market valuation to deviate from. If so, management will certainly speed up the expansion rate.

systemic risk should be clearly several stock market correction from the previous term, stock decline are powerful hold, which makes the already reasonable price of market risk can not be further awareness passivation, and each time the stock market correction is the best opportunity Jiancang. It is almost past Financial support strong policies, the market will re crazy. how to get investors in this market is simply not separable. now the stock market surged continuously, there are investors to see the high point of 8,000 or even 10,000, and this and the stock analysts in 2001 Viewed 3000 to repeat itself. systemic risk once it started, If you do not come back once took after the bursting of that time may result in social conflicts will be far beyond our imagination.
Chinese stock market is not directly proportional to risk and return of a market for small and medium investors to survive, should be clear understanding of risk, risk prevention first place.
stock split
4 月 by household deposits decreased 167.4 billion
5 13, the central bank data showed, the stock market to make money as a significant effect, April, household renminbi deposits dropped 167.4 billion yuan, up by more than 228 billion yuan. And last April household renminbi deposits increased by 60.6 billion for the same period.
According to China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation recently released statistics data, in April in Shanghai and Shenzhen A share accounts added up to 4.787 million total, one stroke more than a quarter of the total number of new accounts, while beyond the first two years of the total number of new accounts. According to statistics, in the 4 close to 250 billion yuan in January inflows in the stock market, some financial institutions in 830 billion yuan, while the remaining 160 billion yuan more than the contributions are personal funds, indicating that the red-hot stock market diversion of savings deposits on the rise. (Suman Li) < br> The SFC has no intention to suppress a large number of stocks
savings deposits of residents moving to the stock market is to promote the drivers of the recent market rally. Commission on May 11 issued a circular on the recent good number of new investors into the market risk of reminders, but was a Some market participants interpreted as the Commission intends to suppress the stock market.
Central University of Finance and Securities Research Institute He Qiang said in an interview, the Commission was not intended to suppress the stock market and stock market regulation, but for the protection of the interests of investors , the stock market more healthy, more stable development.
experts also said that the current stock market price-earnings ratio of 30 times, the overall is still healthy, the current price-earnings ratio is half of the year 2000, the stock prices is based on GDP growth and enhance the performance of the company's foundation. (cases combined)
investment risk into the market to be careful manuscript edition for reference only

Links
6000 stock index based on what?
Hu Zhi 6000 2008 challenges the driving force of that? nature is value-driven and money driven, it is the bull market both endogenous and exogenous driving force. opened a stock market bubble and the market value of similar assets, the gap between the net from This will be produced by profit-driven stock market bubble of the quantitative goals, based on 4:
first stock index of 6,000 is the total market value of about 24 trillion yuan .2006 total amount of China's GDP more than 20 million yuan, is expected to grow 11% in 2007, further growth in 2008 11% to nearly 25 trillion yuan. so calculation, the securities of the rate of 96%, slightly higher than the world average of 92% (rate securities in emerging markets 67%).
followed , assuming that the total global stock market capitalization in 2008 was more than 50 trillion dollars, the total market value of Shanghai and Shenzhen in the world accounting for about 6%, enter the top five international stock markets. taking into account the integration with the Mainland and Hong Kong stock market and the homogeneity of the three cities combined total market value will 5-6000000000000 U.S. dollars, the global share of 10-12 percent, which surpassed Japan to become the second largest country in the global stock markets (the United States accounted for 44% of the world) .
Third, China's urban household savings rate from the current 80% to 60%, while the residents of the savings rate in Asia (excluding Japan) level over the past 5 years has been about 60%.
Fourth, the proportion of the total population stock market investors that the proportion of total urban population. to reach 150 million accounts, it should be the upper limit of the bull market (stock market crash in Taiwan on the eve of one of every 7 people), the current per on the growth rate of 300,000 should have been close to the peak of wave is expected to open an account this year slowing down.
2008 6000 年 challenge is the driving force main stock index what? nature is value-driven and money-driven, this is the bull market both endogenous and exogenous driving force. in the to the value of these invisible Hong Kong Group began the last kick off the next two years will reach a climax. opened the stock market bubble and the market value of similar assets, the gap between the net, the resulting profit-driven stock market bubble, adopted by the securities of listed assets, so that many listed companies, ; can not read yuan of shares still available? your point is also OK! from me, this is actually knowing too much, learn and use. This is the fund drive with Chinese characteristics.
(Golden Rock)
> Many people remember the happiness of making money, but can not remember the painful lesson when losing money. greed and fear are the weaknesses of human nature, but greed often lead you to nothing and even ruin, the birth of such examples than a decade since the stock market and a lot. He who laughs last, laughs is the best. Where there is life there is hope. market opportunities is not just limited to the bull market, which has proved over the years for the Chinese stock market.